I think we have all come to the conclusion that Biya is a very calculative person despite the aloof manner in which he approaches his job. Meanwhile many think Biya’s refusal to acknowledge and address the anglophone crises might be the reason for his downfall this election, it however seems to me that destabilization of the anglophone regions was part of his campaign strategy.
Biya made one outing for his campaign and that was to Maroua where he didn’t even spend the night. Days earlier Cabral shared images of his visit to the grave of former president Ahmadou Ahidjo in Senegal where he also met the the former president’s family. That gesture had gained Cabral some sympathy and following from the muslim community which he completely lost after he made the statement:- “I have a small problem with mosques. When the muezzin, from the top of minaret, call to prayer at 5 o’clock in the morning, I’m not sure he cares if all the people who are awake at this time are Muslims” while on a TV program on Canal 2 International. Days after Cabral’s falling out with the Muslims, Biya was in Maroua to take advantage and make them feel more important than Cabral could ever have done.
Why did Biya go to the Far North of all places? First of all, they have the second highest number of registered voters ( 1,125,890) after the Center region with 1,150,821. Secondly, Biya has taken all the credit for the fight against Boko Haram even though he took more than a few days to take down pictures that had him photoshopped next to the corpses of military people who had died in the fight against Boko Haram; all because he could not care enough to honor their sacrifice with his physical presence at their funerals like we would expect a true people’s president to do. Nonetheless despite seeing many images, appearing to be coming from polling stations around the country, which show Kamto in the lead, similar images from the Adamawa, North, and Far North Regions actually show Biya leading ‘fatly.’
The Crises in the NW and SW regions has made them the bedrocks for elections rigging. With most of the voters internally displaced and not provided the option to vote out of the constituencies in which they registered, a party like the SDF which has historically held the anglophone regions comes out badly bruised. The NW and SW regions jointly registered 978,302 voters. Insecurity and heavy military presence in both regions have us looking at a less than 5% voter turnout. I begin to think here that Biya’s refusal to address the anglophone crises was strictly a campaign strategy. The insecurity of the regions also make it very easy for votes to be rigged there as many would not risk their lives to follow ballot boxes around.
What about the diaspora? -Most people in the diaspora have taken up different nationalities and hence can't vote as they are technically not citizens of Cameroon. Those votes you see are those Cameroonians living abroad without a need to take up a new nationality for the added benefits or have dual nationality which means they are obviously doing fine financially, which points to them having a good chunk of the national cake and definitely doing fine with Biya in power.
That said, I did some basic number crunching to try and guess what will happen in the elections so lets get it.
1. Center - 1,150,821 - KAMTO 2. Far North - 1,125,890 - BIYA 3. Littoral - 929,536 - KAMTO 4. West - 729,309 - KAMTO 5. North - 669,314 - BIYA 6. Northwest - 606,544 - 7. Adamawa - 430,686 - BIYA 8. Southwest - 371,758 9. East - 320,368 - BIYA 10. South - 364,327 - BIYA 11. Diaspora - 19,301 - BIYA
Im just working here in terms of absolutes i.e giving each region to the candidate that seems to be leading based oN evidence we have all been receiving on social media from various polling stations. I am also assuming here that there was no voting in the NW and SW regions.
KAMTO = 2,809,666 BIYA = 2,929,886
Despite what many are seeing to be a landslide victory for Kamto, I believe the actual numbers might be closer with Biya even leading. 15 days is quite a lot of time for Biya to pull out as many tricks as possible. I don’t think it is time to get our hopes high yet.
- Tino Foy